It’s win and you’re in for the Bulldogs and Dockers on Sunday afternoon at Marvel Stadium.
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Best Bet
The visitors look a strong bet here given the Bulldogs’ shocking record against quality opposition.
Luke Beveridge’s side have beaten just one top nine team this year, GWS twice, and have lost to each of the other seven. Those two wins are hardly cause for cartwheels either, given the Bulldogs have historically dominated the Giants, winning 10 of their last 11 meetings.
From a betting perspective, the Dogs have failed to cover the line in five of their last six games against top nine teams, with the only exception again being GWS.
Backing top nine teams with a 20-point start has been a profitable long-term strategy, covering at a 65 percent clip. Fremantle have also covered in eight of their last 11 from that position.
The main concern is the Bulldogs piling on a score Fremantle cannot match, but Justin Longmuir’s side have the fourth-best defensive record against top nine teams this season, conceding just 81 points per game. The Dogs, by contrast, have the equal worst record, giving up 96 per game.
Freo won the most recent meeting earlier this year by 16 points. A six-goal turnaround to cover this line feels unlikely, especially in a game likely to be played with finals-like intensity where scoring typically drops.
With so much on the line, back the visitors to keep it close.
Same Game Multi
This game should be more contested given the stakes, and with neither team employing a tagger lately, the mids can be backed with confidence.
Andrew Brayshaw has recorded 25+ in 37 of 43 when Freo are underdogs, Caleb Serong has had 25+ in six straight against the Dogs, while Marcus Bontempelli has had 25+ in five straight against Freo.
Value Bet
Freo are absolutely worth a bet given the Dogs have only beaten one other top nine team this year. However, given their stodgy game style, it’s unlikely to result in a big win, so the 1-39 margin can be played for some extra value.
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