AFL Tips – Western Bulldogs v Fremantle – Round 21 2022

Freo’s recent form has been poor and the Dogs are poised to finish off their top four chances at Marvel Stadium on Saturday.

Best Bet

Western Bulldogs -12.5

Fremantle have been worked out offensively and they will struggle to kick a big enough score against the Dogs.

While the forward line has copped much of the criticism, they have been struggling to get the ball inside 50. Last week against Melbourne, the Dockers lost the inside 50 count by 60 to 40, an absolute hiding.

Their forward pressure has dropped off significantly, meaning they are forcing fewer turnovers in the part of the ground where they can hit the scoreboard.

The Dockers ball movement has also been a problem. They over possess the footy in the back half, allowing their opponents to get numbers behind the ball.

Coach Justin Longmuir is no doubt aware of these issues, but fixing them is easier said than done.

The Dogs have been an improved side of late. They did a great job early against Geelong las week before being run over late, while they ran over the top of the Demons the week prior.

Offensively they are difficult to stop, particularly at Marvel Stadium where they have averaged 104 points per game since Round 5.

Expect the Dogs to win this one comfortably.

Get on Betseeker Bingo with TopSport. If two or more listed players kick the first goal this round, you win! There are chances to win across all nine games.

Same Game Multi

Western Bulldogs -12.5, J. Aish 20+ Disposals, C.Weightman 2+Goals

James Aish tagged Clayton Oliver successfully last week while winning 28 disposals of his own. Jack Macrae looks a likely target for him this week. Cody Weightman has kicked a goal in every game except one at Marvel this season, averaging two per game.

Value Bet

Full Time Most Goals
Jamarra Ugle-Hagan

Ugle-Hagan has topped the goals for the Dogs in two of the last three games and is enjoying a breakout back end to the season. Freo tend to share their goal kicking around so Ugle-Hagan looks a great price, and even if he dead heats, that’s nearly a $5.00 dividend.

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Tim is a wagering industry veteran, having spent more than a decade at Sportsbet, BetEasy, TAB and William Hill working in trading and content.