AFL Tips - Western Bulldogs v Essendon

The Bulldogs battle the Bombers on Friday night at Marvel Stadium in a battle of two 2-2 teams.

Best Bet

Western Bulldogs -15.5

Line

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$1.90

This has quietly been perhaps the most one-sided match-up in the AFL over the last decade.

The Bulldogs have simply owned the Bombers, winning nine of their last ten matches and covering in eight. The average winning margin has been 46 points.

Essendon’s only win in this period, back in 2021, came by the lowest margin throughout this stretch at 13 points. The Dogs’ wins have all come by 21 points or more.

Brad Scott’s team continue to underwhelm. They have the third-worst defence behind West Coast and North Melbourne, conceding 98 points per game, and were blown off the park last week against Port Adelaide in one of the most feeble efforts by any team this year. So much for the ‘Essendon Edge’.

The Dogs’ first four games have included two tough assignments against the Cats and Demons, both of whom look set for finals in 2024, but also two demolitions of the Suns and Eagles.

Based on the opening month of the season, the Bombers look much closer to the standard of the latter duo rather than the former, and given their brilliant record in this match-up, they look a strong bet.

Same Game Multi

Bulldogs -15.5, Z.Merrett & A.Treloar 30+ Disposals, T.Liberatore & Nic Martin 25+ Disposals,

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TBC

This should be a great game for disposals betting as the Dogs and Dons are ranked second and fifth for average disposals per game.

Zach Merrett has had 30+ in five straight while Adam Treloar has hit the same mark in five of the last six.

Port’s inside mids humiliated the Bombers last week so expect Libba to have another monster game after 35 last week.

Nic Martin has had 30+ in his last three.

Value Bets

Western Bulldogs 40+

Margin

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$3.80

Western Bulldogs 61+

Margin

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$9.00

This Essendon team has a habit of really turning up their toes when the going gets tough. Their last seven losses have come by margins of 69, 30, 70, 126, 2, 41 and 77 points. If the Dogs get on top early here, another big loss could be on the way.

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