The Bulldogs and Crows meet in Ballarat for the third time this Saturday and the result should again be high scoring.
Best Bet
Over 167.5 Total Points ($1.90)
Expect the goals to flow on a clear day in Ballarat on Saturday.
Six of the last seven head-to-head not played in Adelaide have gone over including both games in Ballarat. Seven of ten games involving these two teams in 2022 have cleared the total.
Adelaide’s last three games have been complete shootouts, with totals averaging 191 points per game.
The Bulldogs have been more inconsistent offensively, but piled on 21 goals last week to prove they are capable of booting big scores. They rank #1 for inside 50s over the last month so they’ll just need to maintain a decent level of forward efficiency to put on a score here and see us over a moderate total.
Same Game Multi
Over 167.5 Total Points / T.Walker 3+ Goals / B.Smith 30+ Disposals ($6.50)
Not particularly keen to bet into H2H markets or a tricky line here. The Crows have cleared in four of five this year while the Dogs showed last week they have the talent to blow teams off the park.
See below for Taylor Walker and Bailey Smith reasonings.
Value Bets
T.Walker 4+ Goals ($4.50)
Backing key forwards against the Dogs is one of the best angles in footy at the moment.
Ben Brown kicked 3.3 against them in Round 1, Curnow and McKay 5.0 and 4.1 respectively in Round 2, Tom Lynch 4.0 in Round 4 and Nick Larkey 4.2 last week.
The Texan is one of the best set shots in the AFL, kicking 9.2 since returning from suspension two weeks ago.
To score 4+ looks a great bet as is 5+ at $10.00.
Bailey Smith 35+ Disposals ($3.75)
Bailey Smith is playing the majority of his games as a pure midfielder in 2022, instead of on the wing, and markets have been slow to adjust.
He’s had 33, 31, 36 and 43 disposals in his four games this year and is fantastic value for another big game. $9.50 for 40+ appeals as well.
