AFL Tips - West Coast v Sydney

The wooden spoon-winning West Coast Eagles end their miserable year with a visit from the Sydney Swans.

Best Bet

Sydney -30.5

Line

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$1.90

The numbers all point to Sydney here.

The Swans have dominated this match-up, winning 11 of their last 14 against the Eagles and covering the line in 10 of those. Their average winning margin across those 11 victories is 40 points.

They’ve also covered the line in 10 of their last 11 as favourites against West Coast, five straight at Optus Stadium, and eight straight as favourites in WA.

Sydney’s overall season has been disappointing, but their recent form has improved. They’ve won five straight against bottom-nine sides by an average of 27 points, driven largely by their midfield dominance and the influence of Brodie Grundy, who returns from concussion this week.

West Coast are limping to the finish, managing just 32 points last week in a 94-point belting. Their midfield is a concern, ranking fourth-worst for clearances over the last five weeks, while Sydney rank fifth.

The experience gap is enormous. The Eagles’ selected side averages 66 games per player, with 12 players under 50 games, while the Swans average 138.

Expect Heeney, Warner, Gulden and Grundy to run riot here. Back the Swans to win comfortably.

Same Game Multi

Sydney -30.5, E.Gulden 25+ Disposals, I.Heeney & W.Hayward 2+ Goals

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$4.75

Heeney has kicked 3+ in four of his last five against West Coast, while Will Hayward has kicked 3+ in three straight on the road.

Errol Gulden has had 25+ touches in three straight against the Eagles.

Value Bet

I.Heeney

5+ Goals

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$10

Heeney has kicked five twice in his last five games, and five in his second-most recent game against the Eagles.

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Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.