AFL Tips – West Coast v St Kilda – Round 19 2022

St Kilda’s drop off following the bye has been remarkable but they can bounce back against the hapless Eagles.

Best Bet

St Kilda -19.5

Since their 10 days off in early June, the Saints are 1-5 head to head and 1-5 at the line. They have been flat out uncompetitive in two of those games, both last week against the Dogs (don’t let the 28 point margin fool you) and against the Swans.

However, they have had a relatively difficult schedule in that time, playing four top eight sides, plus the Dogs and a much improved Bombers outfit.

One thing the Saints have done consistently this season is beat bad sides, and West Coast are a bad side.

While the Eagles did show glimpses a few weeks ago, they have seemingly reverted to the non-competitive team we saw in the first half of the season.

The Eagles lost the contested possession count by 36 last week against the Hawks, a worrying sign given that Hawthorn is ranked 16th in the competition by that metric.

The week prior to that, they were scoreless in the first and last quarters, something which had not happened since 1919.

St Kilda have also shown the ability to bounce back from big defeats. They upset Geelong by 10 points after being smashed by Melbourne the week prior, and beat Carlton following a mauling at the hands of the Swans the week prior.

WIth their backs against the wall, the Saints should be able to do enough to cover here.

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Same Game Multi

St. Kilda -19.5, M.King 3+ Goals, J. Kennedy 2+ Goals

Max King kicked 11 in two games against the Eagles last year and should see plenty of supply this week. Josh Kennedy has been a consistent goal scorer in spite of supply issues this season.

Value Bet

St Kilda 40+

West Coast are 1-9 at home this season with a percentage of 52%. If St Kilda bring their best and the Eagles serve up their present form, this could easily be another blowout.

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Tim is a wagering industry veteran, having spent more than a decade at Sportsbet, BetEasy, TAB and William Hill working in trading and content.