West Coast can cover a big line in the wet against the Cats on Saturday afternoon.
Best Bet
The Eagles have been unbackable all year but with a host of stars set to return and rain forecast in Perth, a seven-goal start looks too big for the home team.
Adam Simpson will have his strongest line-up of 2022 on the park this week with experienced quintet Jeremy McGovern, Elliot Yeo, Liam Ryan, Dom Sheed and Willie Rioli all ready to return (Update: Ryan to miss with the flu). The line-up will feature 13 players who played in the 2018 Premiership – every premiership player that remains on the list except for Tom Cole.
Granted, very few of those players are performing to the same standard that they were in 2018, but they remain an experienced and well-coached group that should be much more competitive in the back half of 2022.
The forecast 10-20mm of rain will only help West Coast’s cause given bookies don’t adjust lines or totals nearly enough in wet weather footy. Underdogs with 42+ point starts have covered in 11 of 15 wet weather games over the last decade.
Key forwards struggle in wet conditions too and no team is more reliant on its talls than Geelong. The Cats’ top five goalkickers for 2022 are:
- Jeremy Cameron (38 goals)
- Tom Hawkins (33)
- Tyson Stengle (23)
- Brad Close (12)
- Zach Tuohy (5)
If neither of Geelong’s talls forwards fire, it’s hard to see them kicking enough goals to cover a big line.
If there’s a week to back the Eagles, this is it.
Who will take home the AFL’s top individual award? Check out our weekly AFL Brownlow Predictor for this week’s leaderboard and our tips.
Same Game Multi
The talls are no value in wet weather so avoid them here. West Coast’s disposals will be a lottery given their changes so we’ll steer clear there too.
Tyson Stengle has kicked 2+ in six of his last eight games while Joel Selwood has had 20+ disposals in eight of nine games.
Value Bet
One for the radar watchers here but if the rain does come throughout the game, the total looks too high.
As stated, the Cats will struggle to put on a big score and the bookies don’t drop totals enough in wet weather. Totals have gone under in 72% of wet weather games over the last decade, including 84% of Geelong games.
Keep an eye on the forecast over the weekend and jump on if the rain arrives.
