The first Western Derby of the year is here and it suddenly looks a competitive match-up between the stodgy Dockers and an improved Eagles.
Best Bet
Fremantle don’t score enough to be favoured by this large a line.
The dour Dockers are back in 2024 and while it has resulted in a 3-2 record and two narrow losses to Carlton and Port Adelaide, playing low-scoring football keeps your opposition in the game.
West Coast have been a much-improved outfit in their last two matches, running a premiership contender in Sydney close for three quarters before taking care of business against an injury-depleted Tigers last week.
It’s been built on strength around the pill with the Eagles dominating the Tigers 48-23 in clearances and 15-8 out of the middle. Their improvement around the ball comes at a good time as Freo are the league’s best team for clearance differential and will also welcome back Sean Darcy this week.
Adam Simpson’s team aren’t as young as you might expect, averaging 92 games of experience against Fremantle’s 89 last week, although the Dockers were slightly older, so this West Coast team do have the experience to be competitive with a side like Freo, especially with their gun players like Elliot Yeo, Tom Barrass and Jeremy McGovern enjoying an injury-free run.
The Dockers have scored just 69, 63 and 63 points in their last three games and aren’t playing the style of football which would result in a margin this large.
Same Game Multi
If this is another stodgy Freo game then the under comes into calculations too. It’s hit in six of Freo’s last seven.
We’ll steer clear of goal-kickers if that is the case as we have some consistent disposal winners on offer.
Caleb Serong and Elliot Yeo have had 25+ in every game this year while Hayden Young has too in his last three.
Luke Ryan has had 20+ in each of his games and takes the vast majority of Freo’s kick-ins.
Value Bet
Fremantle should have the class to get the win here but the market is overrating their ability to secure a blowout win. After being largely uncompetitive in their last four derbies, West Coast should be fired up for a big effort against their bitter rivals.
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