AFL Tips - West Coast v Essendon

West Coast will be hoping to avoid another humiliating defeat when they host Essendon on Friday night.

Best Bet

Essendon -26.5

Line

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$1.90

This is a rotten betting match but we’ll hold our noses and back Essendon to continue West Coast’s miserable run.

The numbers don’t flatter the Bombers. They’ve failed to cover the line in nine straight games as favourites, six straight as away favourites and six of eight when favoured by 24 points or more. That said, Brad Scott’s relentless drive for higher standards off the field appears to be paying off. Essendon have improved defensively in 2025, currently sitting 9th for points conceded, up from 15th last year.

West Coast, meanwhile, have been disgusting. They’ve failed to cover the line in six of their last seven games and their average losing margin across five defeats this season is a staggering 70 points. Jeremy McGovern’s return will help but the rest of the team is a mess. Last week they recorded the lowest contested possession tally in the stat’s history.

The Eagles have failed to score more than 51 points in three of five matches this season and with Essendon’s improved defence, we’ll back the Bombers to contain the home side and do enough offensively to clear the line.

Same Game Multi

Essendon -26.5, Z.Merrett 30+ Disposals, N.Martin 20+ Disposals, L.Ryan Anytime Goal

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TBC

Merrett has had 34+ in his last three games while Nic Martin has had 20+ in 28 straight games.

The Bombers spread their goal-kicking around so we’ll look to Liam Ryan to hit the scoreboard. He’s booted six in his last three games.

Value Bet

Zach Merrett

40+ Disposals

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$6.50

Carlton mids ran amok last week, with Hewitt racking up 39 and Walsh, 37. Merrett is one of the biggest ball pigs in the game and has had 35+ in three of five. Him reaching 40 here against the rotten Eagles mids looks a good play.

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Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.