AFL Tips - West Coast v Essendon

Dean Solomon takes charge of Essendon for the first time on Sunday evening at Optus Stadium, with heavy rain forecast to make this an even more unpredictable contest.

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Best Bet

Under 150.5 Points

Total Points

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$1.90

With 10 to 30 millimetres of rain forecast for Perth on Sunday evening, the under is the only way to play this horrible fixture.

Taking the teams out of the equation entirely, wet weather games have gone under at a 70 per cent clip since 2010. Totals are never set low enough to account for what rain does to scoring.

The head-to-head history adds further weight. Four of the last five between these teams have gone under the total, with the only outlier a 214-point shootout at Marvel in 2024. The other four games averaged just 146 points.

With the new coach bounce also a consideration for Essendon, the under is the best play.

Same Game Multi

Under 150.5 Points, H.Reid 25+ Disposals, D.Parish 25+ Disposals, T.Kelly 20+ Disposals

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$5.75

Wet conditions favour inside midfielders and Essendon give up more disposals to that position than any other team. Harley Reid has had 25 or more touches in his last two games at Optus Stadium, while Tim Kelly has had 19 or more disposals in each of his last five games.

Darcy Parish is coming off 41 last week.

Value Bet

Essendon

Head To Head

Bet Now

$2.62

West Coast cannot get the job done as favourites, losing their last eight from that position. The new coach bounce is absolutely real too, as Carlton demonstrated with Josh Fraser three weeks ago. Of the last 16 mid-season coaching changes, the team has gone 7-9 immediately afterwards, a huge improvement from the prior form which got the former coach sacked.

Betseeker’s expert tipsters have you covered for the best AFL tips, predictions, same-game multis, and more, for each game of the 2026 AFL season.

Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.

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