AFL Tips – Sydney v Richmond – Round 11 2022

This game will be won in the middle.

Best Bet

Richmond +10.5

The Swans form in 2022 bears a remarkable correlation to their performance by one key metric – contested possessions.

If the Swans have won the contested possession count, they have won the game, the only exceptions to this being Round 1 against the Giants and Round 2 against the Cats where the count was tied (they won that game).

How well equipped are Richmond to succeed in this metric? Better than you may think. While the Tigers form turnaround has been driven by their efficiency inside forward 50, they have also won the contested footy count in each of the last four weeks.

This has been driven by a form resurgence from Trent Cotchin, as well as Dion Prestia and Dustin Martin returning from injury. Toby Nankervis has been terrific winning first possession from stoppages as well.

The x-factor this week is Richmond’s star forward Tom Lynch missing with injury. The former Sun has been in outstanding form this season and his logical replacement, Noah Balta, has also been struck down by a hamstring.

Expect a close game. And with the 10.5 point head start, the Tigers look an excellent play.

Who will take home the AFL’s top individual award? Check out our weekly AFL Brownlow Predictor for this week’s leaderboard and our tips.

Same Game Multi

Richmond +10.5, I. Soldo 1+ Goal, I. Heeney, C. Warner 20+ Disposals

No team concedes fewer disposals than the Swans so be cautious about including Richmond players in those markets. The Tigers concede at the third highest rate in the league.

Heeney attended 48% of centre bounces last week and responded with 24 disposals and 470 metres gained. Warner has only gone below 20 twice this season. Soldo has goaled in five of his seven games in 2022 and should see more forward minutes with Lynch out.

Value Bet

3+ Goals
Logan McDonald

Logan McDonald is on the verge of a breakout game, having taken five marks inside 50 last week against the Blues for a return of 3.3.

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Tim is a wagering industry veteran, having spent more than a decade at Sportsbet, BetEasy, TAB and William Hill working in trading and content.