Sydney and GWS meet in a final for the fourth time on Saturday afternoon with the Swans searching for their first September win over their crosstown rival.
Best Bet
The Swans have had the edge over the Giants in recent times, and that trend should continue here.
John Longmire’s men have won and covered in five of their last six Sydney derbies, with four of those victories coming by more than 20 points.
Sydney won their last three games after dropping five of their previous six. To be fair to the minor premiers, four of those five losses came against top ten teams when they were comfortably ahead on top of the ladder. A touch of complacency, coupled with untimely injuries to key players like Papley, Rampe, and Hayward, can certainly be excused.
The Giants also found form entering September, winning seven of their last eight games. However, they have relied heavily on Jesse Hogan, who has kicked an extraordinary 30% of their goals since Round 18.
The Coleman Medalist has struggled against the Swans, averaging just 1.6 goals per game — his fourth-worst return against any opponent. He has never kicked more than two goals in 12 games against the Bloods.
The loss of Toby Bedford is also pivotal, with Chad Warner likely to sleep easier after having just nine touches against the tagger in the first half of Round 14.
Sydney have been the best team all year and look likely to book their home preliminary final.
INSIGHTS
🔥 Sydney Swans Favourites: Sydney Swans have lost 5 of their last 9 games as favourites.
⚡ Sydney Swans Recent Performance: Sydney Swans have struggled to cover the spread, achieving only 2 covers in their last 9 games.
🔄 Head-to-Head: In their last 4 matchups, all games between GWS Giants and Sydney Swans have gone over the total points.
Same Game Multi
As below, Gulden has dominated in this match-up lately, as has Will Hayward, who has kicked 10 in his last four against GWS.
Matt Roberts has become Sydney’s preferred kick-in taker, and has had 25+ in three straight at the SCG.
Lachie Ash has had 20+ in nine straight.
Value Bet
Gulden has just owned the Giants lately, winning the best on ground medal in the last three meetings. He had 41 against the Swans in Round 15 and with the weekend off expect him to be playing well over 90% game time.
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