Sydney should bounce back with a comfortable win over the Suns at home on Saturday.
Best Bet
Sydney -29.5 ($1.90)
As has been the case throughout most of their history, the Gold Coast look to be flailing after a promising start to the year. The Suns have failed to clear the line in their last three matches after their surprise win over Carlton back in Round 4.
This echos previous seasons where they have covered at 65% in the first four rounds, but only at 39% for the remainder of the season. They have also given up two very big scores in their last two games: 115 to Collingwood last week and 132 to the Lions the week prior.
The Swans were brave against the rampaging Lions last week but more alarmingly for the Suns, they piled on the pain against the Hawks and Eagles in the two weeks prior. Their nine-goal last quarter against Hawthorn, in particular, was a brutal reminder at what John Longmire’s team can do to ordinary opposition.
Sydney are the second-best team to back off a loss over the last two seasons, covering the line in 14 of 21 following a defeat. They also belted the Suns by 87 points in the last round of 2021.
Back the Swans to cover.
Same Game Multi
Sydney (-29.5) / Over 170.5 Total Points / Noah Anderson & Callum Mills 25+ Disposals ($6.00)
Don’t be surprised to see a high-scoring game here, both teams rank in the top 8 for average total points. The last two games played by each team have gone over the total as have 17 of the last 27 at the SCG. There is no risk of rain.
Both Callum Mills and Noah Anderson have recorded 25+ disposals in their last four games.
Value Bet
Lance Franklin 5+ Goals ($5.50)
The 35-year-old proved last week that there’s still plenty of gas in the tank, booting four snags in the space of 10 minutes and five for the game against Brisbane. Bud also kicked six against the Suns last time they met.
