AFL Tips – Sydney v Geelong – Round 2 2022

Sydney Geelong

More wet weather is set to hit Sydney this Friday, bringing with it some compelling betting opportunities.

Best Bet

Under 156.5 Total Points ($1.88)

There is only one way to bet wet weather games: back the unders.

Since 2012, night games played in wet weather go under at an astounding 81%. SCG night games go under at 64%. Bookies just do not lower totals enough for these conditions.

There is up to 40mm rain forecast in Sydney on Friday and up to 15mm on Thursday and Saturday. The prospects of the forecast being off look slim.

The total has already come in from 160.5. Back it now before it drops any further and have a nibble at some lower totals as well.

Same Game Multi

Geelong 1-39 / Under 156.5 Total Points / B.Parfitt 25+ Disposals ($6.50)

The Cats are an elite wet weather side. They’ve won 17 of 19 in the wet since 2012 and have covered the start in all six night games in wet conditions. They obliterated Essendon in clearances in Round 1 and should have the edge around the pill again in a more contested match-up. Capitalise on a low scoring game with a 1-39 margin.

Brandon Parfitt has been elevated to one of Geelong’s primary mids but is still priced higher than Dangerfield and Guthrie for disposals despite having 32 touches and 11 clearances against Essendon. He’ll be right in the action all night.

Value Bet

Under 130.5 Total Points ($4.50)

As mentioned, taking some lower alternative totals looks a strong play. In 96 wet weather games at night over the last decade, the average total points is just 126.9. If the worst of the rain hits during game time, the total could easily be in the 110-130 range.

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Joel has worked for more than six years at Sportsbet and BetEasy in the content and tipping space, specialising in AFL, cricket, NBA and UFC.