Essendon can keep it close against the inconsistent Swans.
Best Bet
Essendon +23.5 ($1.90)
The last five games between these sides have been decided by ten points or less and I suspect that Essendon can keep it close again.
Sydney have been very inconsistent at home this season, losing last week to the Suns and only falling over the line against North.
The Gold Coast game offers a potential blueprint on how to beat the Swans. The Suns had 118 marks for the game, the second most Sydney has conceded in any game since 2019. Essendon tend to play a high possession style with a lot of uncontested marks so they can lean in to their usual gameplan.
The Bombers on the other hand are coming off a remarkable victory achieved in spite of five enforced late changes. They get most of those players back this week. If they can bring that momentum into this week, keeping in mind their good record against the Swans, a cover looks achievable.
Same Game Multi
Essendon +24.5 / D. Parish, Z. Merrett 30+ Disposals / J. McInerney, A. McGrath 20+ Disposals ($4.75)
Essendon are a high possession team and their prime movers should see plenty of ball once again. Swans wingman McInerney has been down the last couple of weeks but looks primed for a bounce back game here.
Value Bet
Sydney 1-19 ($4.40)
This rivalry continues to throw up close games and the odds on offer for a narrow Swans victory are tempting.
