AFL Tips - Sydney v Essendon

Torrential rain is set to his Sydney on Saturday which could turn this Swans v Bombers clash into a very ugly affair.

Best Bet

Under 148.5 Points

Total Points

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With up to 90mm of rain forecast for Sydney this week, including as much as 45mm on Saturday, the under looks like the only play in this one.

Since 2010, 71% of AFL matches played in wet weather have gone under the total, with an average combined score of just 136 points. There are no stats for games played after three straight days of torrential rain, but you’d imagine the under would hit even more often in those conditions.

Essendon’s brutal injury list has been well documented, and it’s clearly affected their scoring. Since Round 12, they have averaged just 63 points per game.

The Swans’ form has improved as the season has gone on, but they remain a mid-table offence, averaging 84 points per game since Round 12, which ranks eighth. Given Essendon’s scoring issues, Sydney may need to kick 90 or more for this total to clear, and that seems unlikely in the wet.

If the forecast holds, this should go well under the number.

Same Game Multi

Under 148.5 Points, T.Papley 2+ Goals, C.Warner & B.Grundy 20+ Disposals

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$6.25

James Jordan is a near certainty to tag Zach Merrett so steer clear of him.

Plenty of rain should mean plenty of clearances so Brodie Grundy should have his seventh straight 20+ touch game. Chad Warner has had 20+ in three of his last five (but 19 in each of the other two).

Wet weather will suit Tom Papley. He kicked four last time against the Dons, and 2+ in four of five – and 1.3 in the other.

Value Bet

Under 134.5 Points

Total Points

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$3.30

For obvious reasons, all alternate totals down to 100 could be played here.

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Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.