AFL Tips - Sydney v Essendon

The Swans look an early flag contender and should be far too strong for Essendon at home on Saturday night.

Best Bet

Sydney -29.5

Line

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Along with their crosstown rivals GWS, the Swans have been the most impressive team through two weeks of the 2024 season, thoroughly outplaying both Melbourne and Collingwood in successive weeks.

Essendon a significant step down in quality, especially defensively, and it should lead to another big win for the Bloods.

The Bombers were flattered by last week’s 24-point win over Hawthorn with no improvement from last year in their ability to defend opposition ball movement. The Hawks’ inaccurate 11.17 saved Brad Scott’s men, with Champion Data’s expected scoring having them losing 95-81.

This is a red flag against Sydney, who have been electric in transition in 2024, led by elite kicks like Nick Blakey, Braeden Campbell and Errol Gulden.

The Swans have built upon their elite ball movement in the contest too, with new recruit Brodie Grundy looking back to his All Australian best and Isaac Heeney playing like a potential Brownlow medalist in the midfield.

Mason Redman’s absence through suspension is enormous for the Bombers, as is Matt Guelfi’s after he did a number on Hawks star James Sicily last week. He would have been very handy as a defensive forward against Nick Blakey.

It’s just hard to see where the Swans get outplayed here, and given they’ve covered in five straight games and the home side has covered in the last four between these teams, it should mean a comfortable victory.

Same Game Multi

Sydney -29.5, T.Papley 2+ Goals, E.Gulden & Z.Merrett 25+ Disposals, A.McGrath 20+ Disposals

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TBC

The Swans are such an even team it can be tricky to pick out same game multi angles but Errol Gulden should run wild against this defence after 30 last week.

The Hawks smalls played well against Essendon last week with Dylan Moore kicking three and Nick Watson an inaccurate 0.3. Papley scored just the one goal just week but has scored 2+ in three of his last four against the Bombers.

Zach Merrett has had 25+ in six of his last seven while Andrew McGrath is being used much more as a distributor off half-back. He had 33 last week.

Value Bet

Over 119.5 Points

Sydney Alternate Total Points

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$4.30

The Swans have kicked 100+ points in three of their last four against Essendon and, as mentioned, their elite ball movement could really slice through the Bombers’ ordinary team defence.

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