A place in the 2022 AFL Grand Final is on the line this Saturday afternoon at the SCG with Sydney and Collingwood to do battle in what should be a close, intense contest.
Best Bet
The under presents as the strongest play in a tough preliminary final to predict.
A remarkable 12 of the last 13 Swans v Magpies games have fallen short of the total, including the last six played at the SCG. These teams’ sole meeting this year in Round 22 delivered just 127 points.
The numbers are just as compelling for Collingwood games with the under hitting in 11 straight September games, 8 of the last 10 with the Pies as outsiders and 64% of their interstate games over the last decade.
The one thing both teams bring in spades is pressure – these are the top two ranked pressure teams in 2022 – and on the small confines of the SCG, a tight, contested preliminary final is absolutely on the cards.
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Value Bet
The Swans will be hard to beat at home but the Pies appeal with a near three goal start.
Collingwood have been a brilliant bet of late as outsiders, clearing the line in 8 of their last 9, and on the road, clearing in 4 of 5 interstate.
While the Pies did lose to the Swans at the SCG by 27 points just four games ago, they were without Jordan De Goey on that occasion. Jack Ginnivan was also subbed out at half time.
De Goey’s off-field issues may be reducing his contract value, but there can be no questioning of his on-field exploits in this finals series after two ‘Dusty-esque’ performances, including a best on ground effort last week against Fremantle.
Collingwood have surprised some with their return to the top four this year, but they have made finals in three of the last four years including the 2018 Grand Final. They’ll have up to nine players who lost to West Coast that day take the field this Saturday. This is an experienced team in big games.
The impact of the pre-finals bye also cannot be discounted. In only one of the five seasons with a bye leading into finals have both teams with a week off also won the preliminary finals. The numbers suggest there will be an upset this weekend and this is more likely to be it.
In what we project to be a tight, low-scoring encounter, the Pies are a good bet with the start to keep this one close and to even claim yet another narrow victory.
Same Game Multi
Neither of these sides’ players are particularly consistent from a disposals perspective and they tend to share their scoring around more than most, so we’ll just multi up a couple of goalkickers with Collingwood at the line and the under.
Jack Ginnivan has kicked a goal in eight straight games while Will Hayward has done the same in seven straight.
