AFL Tips – Sydney v Carlton – Opening Round 2026

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Best Bet

Over 172.5 Points

Total Points

$1.90

The season opener shapes as a good opportunity to attack the total.

History supports the over early in the year. Since 2021, 61 percent of matches played through the first two rounds have gone over the total as teams attack before defensive systems fully settle.

The AFL’s new rules aimed at speeding up the game should also help scoring. Faster ball-ups, a crackdown on the stand rule, rucks required to start in the centre square at stoppages and the introduction of last-touch out of bounds are all expected to increase tempo and create more attacking opportunities.

Carlton looked impressive in preseason and appear intent on playing a faster, more attacking brand of football in 2026. Jagga Smith and Sam Walsh should provide much needed run to what has been a very stodgy engine room in recent seasons. Will Hayward and Ben Ainsworth also bring greater variety to a previously Curnow and McKay-focused forward line.

Sydney have also addressed their biggest weakness with the arrival of Charlie Curnow, giving their midfield a genuine focal point inside 50. With both sides capable of scoring and early season matches often played at higher tempo, the total looks slightly conservative in what should be perfect conditions for footy.

Same Game Multi

Sydney H2H, Over 172.5 Points, Sam Walsh 25+ Disposals, Jagga Smith 20+ Disposals

$4.10

Sydney are extremely hard to oppose at the SCG and should control large stretches of the game even if Carlton are improved this season.

Jagga Smith looks an ideal SGM inclusion this year. The young midfielder racked up 37 touches in the pre-season game against Geelong and it is unlikely that a 20+ disposal price will remain this generous for long.

Sam Walsh also shapes as a strong inclusion after a healthy preseason. He has recorded 25 or more disposals in seven of his nine career games against Sydney and remains Carlton’s most reliable accumulator when fit.

Value Bet

Angus Sheldrick

25+ Disposals

TBC

Emerging Sydney midfielder Angus Sheldrick impressed in his final preseason hitout, recording a game-high 35 disposals against the Giants. He also finished last season strongly, recording 24 and 26 touches in two of his final four matches.

His addition to the midfield gives Dean Cox greater flexibility with Heeney, Gulden and Warner and if his preseason role holds he should get enough opportunity to push past the 25-disposal mark at a generous price.