AFL Tips – Sydney v Brisbane Lions – Round 7 2022

We’re in for a beauty on Sunday afternoon with two genuine flag contenders meeting at the SCG.

Best Bet

Over 159.5 Points ($1.90)

The over looks a tremendous bet for Sunday’s game.

The SCG has been a great ground to back the overs, with 16 of the last 26 clearing the total, including 6 of the last 9 Sydney have played in.

Both teams are good overs teams historically. Five of Sydney’s six games in 2022 have cleared the line while Brisbane games rank third for total points this season. Since the start of 2021, Swans games clear at 55% and Brisbane 63%.

Sydney’s forward line will only be aided by the likely return of Tom Papley, joining a well-spread attack which has kicked the third-most points this season. Brisbane have kicked 33 points more than any other team this year.

Given all these factors its very surprising to see one of the lowest totals of any game this season on offer. Of the 54 games played in 2022, 44 have had a higher total. There is no significant rain expected.

Take the overs and enjoy a shootout between two very exciting teams.


Same Game Multi

Over 159.5 Total Points / Z.Bailey, C.Cameron & I.Heeney 2+ goals ($7.50)

Given we’re expecting bulk snags to be scored, we’ll be looking to cash in on some goalkickers.

Sydney don’t let many forwards off the chain but there is a slight lean toward small forwards. Jack Ziebell (5 goals), Brad Close (4) and Liam Ryan (3) have all kicked multiples on the Swans. Zac Bailey has kicked 13 goals in the last three games while Charlie Cameron is averaging two per game.

For the Swans, Isaac Heeney is kicking goals against everyone, averaging 2.5 per game.


Value Bet

Z.Bailey 3+ Goals ($4.00)

Zac Bailey is in awesome touch and is forming a frightening small forward combination with Charlie Cameron. He’s booted 4, 3 and 6 in his last three games. Great value at $4.00 for three and absolutely worth a throw at 4+ ($10.00) and 5+ ($29.00).

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Joel has worked for more than six years at Sportsbet and BetEasy in the content and tipping space, specialising in AFL, cricket, NBA and UFC.