Sydney host Brisbane at the SCG on Saturday night with the Swans looking to build on their impressive opening round win against the injury and suspension-hit Lions.
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Best Bet
The Lions look a strong chance to stay within the number here despite their lengthy absentee list. Brisbane have an incredible recent record covering as underdogs, going 17-1 against the line in that role across their last 18 matches.
Brisbane do enter the match heavily undermanned, with Zac Bailey, Darcy Gardiner and Harris Andrews all suspended, while Logan Morris and Hugh McCluggage are sidelined through injury.
Despite those absences, this is typically the type of situation where the Lions perform well against the spread. The underdog has also covered in seven of the last eight meetings between these sides.
Sydney were outstanding in the second half against Carlton last week, but they were placed under pressure early and a more efficient opponent could have made them pay. Brisbane remain a deep list and should still be capable of competing around the contest.
The market has moved aggressively, with the line opening around five points and drifting beyond three goals as Brisbane’s availability worsened. Even so, the Lions still have enough quality replacements to keep this contest tighter than the number suggests.
Same Game Multi
Dayne Zorko continues to find plenty of the football and has recorded 25 or more disposals in seven of his last eight matches.
Will Ashcroft should also have a major role through the midfield in McCluggage’s absence, having reached 25 or more touches in 10 of his last 12 appearances.
At the other end, Sydney’s key forwards look well placed to capitalise on Brisbane’s defensive absences. Joel Amartey has kicked two or more goals in four straight matches at the SCG.
Value Bet
With Brisbane missing several key defenders, there is a chance Oscar Allen is redeployed into defence, which could see Darcy Fort and recruit Sam Draper share the ruck and forward duties.
Draper showed glimpses of his scoring ability last season, kicking two or more goals in two of his five appearances. If he spends meaningful time forward, the 2+ price looks a touch generous.
