The line here looks a bit too big, and Adelaide with the points look a good play.
Best Bet
Sydney are playing much better football than Adelaide at present but they haven’t always been reliable as favourites this season.
The last three times that Sydney have been favourites off the back of a win, not only have they failed to cover, they have lost the game.
There isn’t much history of the Swans being big favourites at home, but they are 0-2 against the number when favoured by five goals or more this season.
That’s why the number here just seems a little too high. It has ticked up to almost 40 points this week and with some rain around to level things out, the Crows can cover.
Adelaide are inconsistent as you would expect of the youngest side in the league, but they are strong in clearances and tackles which are important stats on the small SCG.
If the Crows bring the form that saw them get beaten by less than a kick against the in-form Magpies last week, they are capable of keeping this close.
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Same Game Multi
Sydney concede possessions at a low rate so be careful of including too many Crows ball winners. The Swans also share it around so it is hard to be confident of too many players in red and white recording big numbers.
Joel Amartey had bagged two or more in his last two games and should continue to get favourable matchups with more attention paid to Lance Franklin.
Value Bet
Laird has topped the disposals for Adelaide in ten of the last eleven games. The Swans tend to share the footy around fairly evenly so he should be able to top the possession count.
