AFL Tips – Sydney v Adelaide – Round 12 2025

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Best Bet

Adelaide -7.5

Line

$1.90

The Swans have traditionally been a reliable bet as home underdogs, but this is not the same Sydney side as in years past.

Dean Cox has had a difficult first season as coach, with last year’s Grand Finalists missing several key players. The forward line has been hit hardest, with Tom Papley, Logan McDonald and Joel Amartey all sidelined, along with star midfielder Errol Gulden.

As a result, Sydney are averaging just 78 points per game this season, ranked 12th. That is a steep drop from last year’s average of 98, when they led the league in scoring. This week, they take on a high-powered Adelaide side averaging 100 points per game in 2025, ranked third.

The Crows have handled bottom-eight teams with ease, averaging 121 points and winning by 46 points per game across six matchups. Sydney, on the other hand, have struggled against top-eight opposition, covering the line just once in five games, against eighth-placed GWS. In the other four, they’ve lost by an average of four goals.

While the Swans have won their last six meetings with Adelaide, they averaged 114 points in those games, a number they have rarely approached this season.

Adelaide’s firepower should be too much for a depleted Swans outfit to handle.

Same Game Multi

Adelaide -8.5, I.Rankine & J.Rachelle Anytime Goal, M.Roberts 20+ Disposals

TBC

Both of these teams can employ taggers in Jordan and Peatling, so steer clear of the star mids from both teams. Tom McCartin and the returning Lewis Melican are also very solid 1v1 defenders so the Adelaide smalls are the picks for goals.

Josh Rachelle is coming off a bag of five and has scored a goal in seven straight away games. Izak Rankine has kicked a goal in seven straight.

Matt Roberts remains a great SGM inclusion. He’s had 20+ in nine straight.

Value Bet

Jordan Dawson

2+ Goals

$5.00

If Dawson gets the Jordan tag then expect him to push forward more. He’s kicked 2+ in two of his last four games.

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