AFL Tips - St Kilda v Western Bulldogs

With both teams owning losing records almost a quarter of a way through the season, this clash at Marvel Stadium shapes as a pivotal one for both the Saints and Dogs.

Best Bet

St Kilda -2.5

Line

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$1.90

St Kilda are once again an outstanding defensive side and that gives them the edge against the porous dogs.

As you would expect of a Ross Lyon coached side, the Saints defend first and worry about the rest later. In five games they have conceded no more than 80 points, despite playing offensive juggernauts GWS and Geelong.

The Dogs defence on the other hand has been extremely poor. This doesn’t just concern their back six, but the way the team sets up and applies pressure around the ground.

This is why they can win metrics like clearance count and inside 50s, but only boast a 2-3 record on the season.

The loss of Tom Liberatore is a huge one as well. Libba has been in outstanding form of late, with 29 clearances to his name over the last fortnight. The Dogs do have midfield depth, so the out of favour Jackson Macrae should get a clear run at things.

Both teams are without significant key forwards, Max King for the Saints, and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan for the Dogs.

The Saints smashed the Dogs when these sides met last year, restricting them to 37 inside 50s and a total score of 5.11.41. They are an excellent bet to repeat the dose this season.

Same Game Multi

St Kilda -2.5, Macrae, Treloar, Steele 25+ Disposals, Caminiti 1+ Goal

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$7.50

Saints skipper Jack Steele has bounced back to his best this season, having cleared 25 in all five games so far.

Jack Macrae had his busiest game of the year last week and should benefit from Libba’s absence, while Adam Treloar is a ball winning machine with at least 27 in every game this year.

Saints forward Anthony Caminiti has a snag in every game this season.

Value Bet

Anthony Caminiti

3+ Goals

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$4.50

‘The Hammer’ had two snags last week against the Giants and it should have been three. The young key forward looks set to thrive in the absence of Max King.

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