AFL Tips – St Kilda v Sydney – Round 23 2022

Sydney’s top two hopes could be on the line in the final home and away game of the year against St Kilda at Marvel on Sunday afternoon.

Best Bet

Sydney -19.5
Line

Sydney will likely need a win and a percentage boost to secure a home qualifying final here and that will be enough to see them clear the line.

John Longmire’s team are peaking as September approaches, entering this contest off six straight wins by an average of 40.2 points. They’ve covered in four of those games.

The Saints, conversely, are limping toward the end of the season, losing seven of their last ten. Their record against top four teams has been appalling in 2022. They’ve won one of six, lost their last four and have a percentage of 69.6 in those games.

The Swans demolished the Saints by 51 points just nine weeks ago. St Kilda kicked an embarrassing 32 points – their lowest ever score against Sydney – with Max King kept goalless for just the second time this year. Ryan Clarke kept key playmaker Jimmy Webster to just 17 touches – clearly his lowest return of 2022 – so expect him to wear him like a glove again.

There’s simply too much on the line for Sydney to let this opportunity slip. Expect them to win and win well.

Get on Betseeker Bingo with TopSport. If two or more listed players kick the first goal this round, you win! There are chances to win across all nine games.


Same Game Multi

Sydney -19.5, T.Papley & I.Heeney 2+ Goals, I.Heeney 15+ disposals

Tom Papley has kicked 2+ goals in six straight games while Isaac Heeney has in eight straight with Sydney as favourites, indicating he is a good bet against poor opposition. He has also had 15+ disposals in six straight games.


Value Bet

0 Goals

We’re a big fan of TopSport‘s exact goal markets and another goalless game from Max King looks worth a throw here. As mentioned, his first goal-less game came against Sydney earlier in the year and his second was last week where he kicked five behinds. Unfortunately for the former number four pick, his confidence is at rock bottom and this is a rough match-up to end his year.

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Joel has worked for more than six years at Sportsbet and BetEasy in the content and tipping space, specialising in AFL, cricket, NBA and UFC.