AFL Tips – St Kilda v Richmond – Round 3 2022

The Tigers should be able to put up plenty of points in perfect conditions under the dome.

Best Bet

Richmond Over 81.5 Points ($1.88)

Games between these two sides have typically produced plenty of points and the Richmond team total going over looks a strong play.

Seven of the last nine games have gone over the number including six of eight under the Dome at Marvel Stadium. The Tigers put up 134 against the Saints in Round 5 here last year.

Richmond have been highly efficient inside 50 this season, recording a score from 54% of their entries.

This has largely been driven by an excellent forward half clearance game, converting more than 80% of these into scores.

Noah Balta has stepped up in the absence of Jack Riewoldt as an excellent foil for Tom Lynch, and the pair combined for seven goals against the Giants last week. Riewoldt looks likely to return this week which should only make Richmond more potent.

The Tigers should be able to put up plenty of points against a Saints team that has conceded more than 95 on average at Marvel since the start of last year.

Same Game Multi

Richmond Over 81.5 Points / Jack Steele, Jade Gresham & Brad Crouch 25+ Disposals / Tom Lynch 2+ Goals

Richmond gives up large numbers of possessions so backing the Saints accumulators to feast is a sound strategy. Lynch has never had less than two against St. Kilda when playing in Richmond colours.

Value Bet

Jade Gresham 30+ Disposals ($3.75)

Gresham has been in terrific form to start 2022 after missing much of last year. Capable of winning his own footy, he looks capable of having a breakout game against a Tigers side that concedes possessions at a high rate.

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Tim is a wagering industry veteran, having spent more than a decade at Sportsbet, BetEasy, TAB and William Hill working in trading and content.