AFL Tips – St Kilda v North Melbourne – Round 11 2022

North’s horror week will end with yet another loss on Sunday at Marvel.

Best Bet

St Kilda -22.5
Second Half Handicap

North’s year took another turn for the worse this week when three key recruiting staff abandoned ship, further adding to the steady stream of bad news out of Arden St in 2022.

On field it’s been a train wreck. Their average losing margin is 57 points and they’ve covered the line just twice in ten games.

Consequentially, they get a 45 point start against the 7-3 Saints.

St Kilda, however, haven’t proven themselves to be a team with the firepower to smash bad opposition like North. They are 4-2 against bottom 10 teams in 2022 and their margins of victory have been 21, 17, 26 and 69 points, which came against Hawthorn in Round 4 – the last time they kicked 100+ points. They only have the 10th ranked offence.

Where there is huge value in this game is the half markets. The Saints are a bad first half team and brilliant second half team. North are a bad first half team and a diabolical second half team.

First Half14th (3-7 / 86%)16th (2-8 / 65%)
Second Half3rd (7-3 / 161%)18th (0-10 / 43%)

Back the Saints to finish strong after a competitive first half from North.

Who will take home the AFL’s top individual award? Check out our weekly AFL Brownlow Predictor for this week’s leaderboard and our tips.

Same Game Multi

St Kilda 25+, B.Crouch & J.Sinclair 25+ Disposals, T.Membrey 2+ Goals

The Roos are -51 disposals per game on average in 2022 so we’ll look to a couple of Saints ball winners here.

Brad Crouch has had 25+ in five straight games while Jack Sinclair has had 30+ in his last two.

Tim Membrey has kicked 2+ in his last two games and will get a good match-up here with North still missing Ben McKay.

Value Bet

HT / FT Double
Quarter by Quarter

Keen to get creative with some quarter by quarter markets here

If there is any ‘Shinboner Spirit’ left at North Melbourne then expect it to come out early for captain Jack Ziebell’s 250th. With the Saints’ incredible second half record, they’ll finish far stronger than the Roos.

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Joel has worked for more than six years at Sportsbet and BetEasy in the content and tipping space, specialising in AFL, cricket, NBA and UFC.