AFL Tips – St Kilda v Melbourne – Round 20 2025

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Best Bet

St Kilda +2.5

Line

$1.90

It’s slightly surprising to see the Saints listed as underdogs here.

Yes, they’re coming off six straight defeats, but they’ve faced a brutal fixture in that stretch, taking on the Bulldogs, Magpies, Dockers, Hawks, Swans and Cats. They’ve covered the line in the last four of those matches.

Their most recent game against a bottom-eight side was in Round 12 against Melbourne, where they ran out 28-point winners in Alice Springs, although the Dees were very inaccurate that day, kicking 7.21.

Melbourne only have won victory from their last seven, and that came against a struggling North Melbourne. They were again wasteful in front of goal last week against the Blues, but that has become a hallmark of this side in recent years.

The Dees have at their most dangerous this year when Kozzie Pickett or Jake Melksham get off the chain, but neither has a strong record against the Saints. Both have averaged just 1.2 goals per game across their last five outings against Ross Lyon’s side.

They will also be without Steven May this week, who joins fellow defensive mainstay Jake Lever on the sidelines.

The Saints will be relishing the chance to face a side in their weight class and look a good bet to break their losing streak.

Same Game Multi

St Kilda +2.5, N.Wanganeen-Milera 25+ Disposals, M.Hall & C.Petracca Anytime Goal

TBC

Melbourne generally don’t tag, but even if they wanted to they probably don’t have anyone who can go with Wanganeen-Milera, who is averaging 33 touches from his last five games.

Christian Petracca has been an issue for the Saints, kicking eight in his last three against them.

Max Hall has been a nice find for the Saints this year. He’s kicked three in each of his last two at Marvel, and two last time against the Dees.

Value Bet

N.Wanganeen-Milera

35+ Disposals

$3.85

Not a lot of value on offer in this game but Nas has racked up 35+ in three of his last five games.

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