Few would have predicted both St Kilda and Gold Coast to have started the year so positively and giving us such an intriguing and important match-up at Marvel on Saturday.
Best Bet
Under 170.5 Total Points ($1.90)
A high total will be tough to top for two of the AFL’s most improved defences.
The Suns and Saints rank 4th and 5th respectively for points conceded in 2022. Gold Coast conceding 77 points per game and St Kilda, 79.
St Kilda have opened the floodgates on their opposition in the last two weeks, scoring 117 on Richmond and 142 on Hawthorn. However, we suspect that is more reflective of where those two teams are at in 2022.
The Saints played Fremantle in Perth in Round 2. The Dockers are currently ranked second for points conceded and the result was a grinding 65-55 win to the visitors. This has the hallmarks of a similar result.
Five of the last six games between these two sides have gone under and it looks a good bet again this week.
Same Game Multi
Gold Coast +19.5 / Under 170.5 Total Points / B.Crouch 25+ Disposals / J.Sinclair 20+ Disposals ($5.50)
This has historically been the point in the year when the Suns fall away dramatically. Stuart Dew’s winning record in Rounds 1-4 is 55% and just 15% for the rest of the season.
But with Touk Miller, Matt Rowell and Noah Anderson all playing great footy, Gold Coast now have a midfield that should keep them competitive well into 2022. In what we’re expecting to be a low-scoring contest, a 20-point start looks generous to the visitors.
The Suns concede the most disposals of any team in the comp so we’ll target St Kilda players for our remaining legs.
Brad Crouch is remarkably consistent ball winner, notching up 27, 29, 29 and 29 disposals in his four games this year.
Jack Sinclair is one of the most improved players in the AFL this year and has breezed past 20 in each game.
Value Bets
St Kilda 1-19 Points ($4.20)
Very keen to play some low margins here with these two sides having an extraordinary history of close games.
The last five margins between Gold Coast and St Kilda have been 9, 4, 4, 1 and 2 points.
With a low-scoring game predicted, a narrow St Kilda win by 1-19 points or even 1-9 points at $8.50 look great value.
