AFL Tips - St Kilda v Gold Coast

The Suns find themselves in the Top 8 more than halfway through the season, but will need to start winning on the road if they are to stay there. They get an opportunity on Saturday night against the Saints at Marvel.

Best Bet

St Kilda

Win

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$1.90

Gold Coast need to show they can win on the road before they can be trusted.

The Suns have been outstanding at home this season, winning seven and covering in six games at Metricon or in Darwin.

It’s been the total opposite on the road though, as they have failed to win or cover a line in four games, with the smallest margin of defeat being 29 points.

Gold Coast have also struggled to hold their form off a win, only covering the line in three of fifteen after being successful in the prior game.

Eventually, under Damien Hardwick and with the level of talent on their list, this should change, but the idiom don’t try to catch a falling knife exists for a reason.

With minimal confidence, the Saints are the play in this one.

Insights

🔒 Gold Coast Suns Away: Gold Coast Suns have struggled on the road, failing to win in their last 8 away games and covering the spread in only 3 of their last 15 away games.

📉 Gold Coast Suns as Favourites: As favourites, Gold Coast Suns have struggled, failing to win in their last 4 games and only winning 1 out of their last 15 games as favourites.

🔄 Gold Coast Suns Off a Win: Gold Coast Suns have failed to perform well after a win, covering the spread in only 3 of their last 15 games in such situations.

Same Game Multi

Saints Win, Wanganeen-Milera 25+, Dow, Marshall 20+ Disposals

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$6.00

Paddy Dow has been a welcome addition to the Saints midfield and has had 20 or more in his last two. Saints ruckman Rowan Marshall has an outstanding record at this ground while Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera has cleared 25 in five of his last six.

Value Bet

Rowan Marshall

30+ Disposals

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$7.25

With Jarrod Witts out for the Suns, Rowan Marshall has his chance to really demonstrate his stamina and win plenty of footy against the inexperienced Ned Moyle.

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