With the Swans’ season faltering, the Lions will be thinking about claiming top spot. But first they have to get past the plucky Saints on Sunday at Marvel.
Best Bet
Brisbane have too much at stake to let this game slip.
The Lions were 25-1 for the Flag at one point this season but as pointed out in these pages, their win/loss had record had much to do with poor accuracy and some positive regression in that department has seen them win eight straight.
St Kilda continues to be competitive despite their season being by and large over, with impressive back to back wins over West Coast and Essendon leading into this.
Nevertheless the Lions in present form are a different beast to those sides. Their win over the Suns – previously unbeaten at home – was more impressive than it looks given their injury hit backline and the return of Harris Andrews for this one is all important.
The Lions beat Saints in Round 15 by 20 points, and a similar margin of victory would seem a likely scenario here.
INSIGHTS
🌍 Brisbane Lions Away: Brisbane Lions have secured 4 wins and 2 wins by 40+ points in their last 4 away games.
🏅 Brisbane Lions Favourites: Brisbane have 8 covers and 4 total overs in their last 9 games as favourites.
🌟 St Kilda Off Win: St Kilda only has 2 wins in their last 9 games following a win.
Same Game Multi
Dayne Zorko has 25 or more in five of his last seven and had 30 when these sides met earlier this year. Lachie Neale was tagged when these sides met earlier this year and was kept to 20, that might open opportunities for Josh Dunkley.
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera is a super consistent ball winner out of the back half for the Saints.
Value Bet
Josh Dunkley has had 30 or more in four of his last six so has the ability to hit a high number, and if Lachie Neale gets a tag again – he is favourite in this market – it opens things right up.
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