The Tigers’ inability to string four quarters together and ordinary recent MCG record will continue to hurt them this Saturday.
Best Bet
Bulldogs -11.5 ($1.90)
Richmond were a terrifying challenge at the MCG during their premiership contention era but that record is now a thing of the past.
Between 2017 and 2020, the Tigers covered the start at 68% at home. Since 2021, they’ve only cleared in four of their last 12 at the ‘G and just once in their last six night games.
By contrast, the Dogs are the best performing team against the start at the MCG over the last decade, clearing at 64%.
The likely return of Dion Prestia will be massive for a Tigers side ranked dead last for clearances in 2022. Jack Riewoldt is also likely to return to a three-pronged forward line alongside Tom Lynch and Noah Balta.
Despite this, this Richmond side just can’t be trusted on current form. They’ve given up seven goal last quarters to Carlton in Round 1 and St Kilda last week. Good sides don’t do that.
The Dogs were very impressive against Sydney last week and will have too many midfield weapons for the Tigers to handle.
Same Game Multi
Bulldogs -11.5, B.Smith & J.Dunkley 25+ Disposals, S.Bolton Any Time Goal ($4.75)
The Tigers have given up 162 more disposals than they’ve recorded in 2022 (ranked 17th) so backing the Bulldogs’ star-studded midfield for a big night looks a good strategy.
Bailey Smith has cleared 30 in both his appearances this season, Josh Dunkley is averaging 28.7 disposals per game through three weeks.
Shai Bolton has been a constant scoring threat for Richmond, kicking eight goals in his three appearances.
Value Bet
Western Bulldogs 13+ Fourth Quarter Margin ($3.45)
As mentioned, the Tigers have been horrendous in two of three final quarters this year. Backing a strong Bulldogs midfield to put them to the sword late looks worth a throw.
We’ll certainly be having a nibble at some larger final quarter margins as well with $26 on offer for a 33+ point margin.
