AFL Tips – Richmond v Essendon – Round 11 2024

The wounded Tigers host second-placed Essendon at the MCG in the annual Dreamtime Clash.

Best Bet

Under 165.5 Points
Total Points

The under looks a magnificent bet.

Richmond are completely decimated by injury with only about 25 available players this week. After a competitive start to the year, remarkably including a win over ladder leaders Sydney, the Tigers have lost six straight and failed to kick more than 50 points in their last four.

For their part, Essendon are playing very dour footy as Brad Scott seeks to implement some defensive accountability in a team that’s had none for many years.

It’s resulted in seven of their last eight games going under for an average total of 153 points. The only over during that period was by half a point in their ANZAC Day draw with Collingwood.

The Dons’ total of 106 last week against North was their first 100+ point score in their last six game (all wins). With the Tigers struggling to break the half-century, it’s hard to see this one challenging the total.

Insights

🏟️ Richmond’s Home Cover Struggles: Richmond has managed to cover the spread in only 2 of their last 9 home games.

📉 Essendon’s Recent Performance Trends: Recent games have largely stayed under the points total for Essendon, with 7 unders in their last 8 games.


Same Game Multi

Under 165.5 Points, K.Langford & P.Wright 2+ Goals, D.Rioli 20+ Disposals

Essendon only won by 40 points against North last week so the line of 42.5 looks about right.

Kyle Langford was well-held last week against North but should bounce back against Richmond’s decimated defence. He’d kicked 13 in his prior four games.

Peter Wright has kicked 2+ in four of his last five.

Daniel Rioli has had 20+ in four straight and will have plenty of work to do in Essendon’s forward line.


Value Bet

Under 49.5 Points
Richmond Alternate Total

As mentioned, the Tiges haven’t hit this number in the last month and will struggle to again versus the defensively improved Bombers.

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Joel has worked for more than six years at Sportsbet and BetEasy in the content and tipping space, specialising in AFL, cricket, NBA and UFC.