AFL Tips – Richmond v Essendon – Round 10 2022

Dreamtime at the ‘G looks like another nightmare for the Bombers.

Best Bet

Richmond -25.5
Line

Essendon are just impossible to back at present.

Last week’s loss to Sydney was one of the most impotent defensive efforts in recent memory. The Dons recorded just 30 tackles, the second-fewest of any team since 2011 (excluding 2020). Their midfield is being openly mocked by their opposition and Ben Rutten’s defensive system is non-existent. There are huge problems at Tullamarine and unfortunately for them, they run into a team which has completely owned them recently this week.

Richmond have won 11 straight against the Bombers and covered in 8 of the last 12 as favourites. They’ve also covered the line in 5 of the last 6 Dreamtime games.

As we touched on in last week’s Hawthorn v Richmond preview, the key for the Tiges is player availability, and no, it’s not Dustin Martin, it’s Dion Prestia. With the former Sun in their line-up they’ve cleared the start in 10 of their last 16 games against 4 of 15 without him.

The brilliant form of Tom Lynch will also challenge the Bombers who may be without their best key defender in Jordan Ridley who is battling hamstring tightness. (UPDATE: He’s out with Covid)

After a sketchy start to 2022, Richmond are working their way into this season nicely, clearing the line in their last four games. They’ll be far too strong for the brittle Bombers this week.

Who will take home the AFL’s top individual award? Check out our weekly AFL Brownlow Predictor for this week’s leaderboard and our tips.


Same Game Multi

Richmond -25.5, D.Martin 2+ Goals, D.Prestia 25+ Disposals, N.Vlaustin 20+ Disposals ($4.75)

Dusty is really starting to warm up since returning from injury, booting three goals last week and two the week prior.

Dion Prestia should feast on the Bombers. He’s had 25 disposals in all four games not affected by injury in 2022.

Nick Vlaustin has recorded 20+ in each of his last seven games. He takes the most kickouts for the Tiges so picks up some cheap touches each week.


Value Bet

D.Martin 3+ Goals ($3.25) & 4+ Goals ($7.25)

As mentioned, Martin looks ready to explode and the game’s best big stage player has a fantastic record in this fixture, averaging 31 touches in his last six Dreamtime games.

Dusty has only attended 27% and 37% of centre bounces in the last two weeks so is playing primarily forward. He booted three against Essendon in this game last year.

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Joel has worked for more than six years at Sportsbet and BetEasy in the content and tipping space, specialising in AFL, cricket, NBA and UFC.