In a game where the market is struggling to split the two teams, the over looks a tremendous best bet for Richmond versus Brisbane at the MCG on Sunday arvo.
This is a monster total but one that the numbers suggest is likely to be cleared.
Brisbane play in the highest scoring matches in 2022, with an average total of 179.5 points per game. Richmond games rank fourth at 175.2 points.
In the last five rounds, nine of ten games featuring these teams have gone over the total with only Richmond’s grinding draw with Freo falling short last week. Excluding the outlier, these teams are averaging a mammoth 186 points combined in their games over this period.
Richmond day games have a remarkable overs record, with the last ten clearing the total including the last six at the MCG. The last five head-to-head have all gone over as well.
As it stands, only five games have had higher totals set than 175.5 in 2022, but if any two teams were built to clear it, it’s Richmond and Brisbane on what should be a clear day at the MCG.
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We’re going to need goals, and lots of them, to hit this total.
Both Tom Lynch and Charlie Cameron have kicked 3+ in three of their last four games.
Lincoln McCarthy has kicked 2+ in three of his last four as well. He’s a beautiful kick for goal who maximises his opportunities in front of the sticks.
Ten of the 36 games involving these two teams have cleared 200 points this season. If both sides have their kicking boots on, it’s likely to clear that mark again.