Expect a low-scoring game in a highly unpredictable start to AFL Round 8.
Best Bet
Under 156.5 Points ($1.90)
Backing the unders in Port Adelaide home night games is one of the best betting angles in footy and given both Port and the Dogs’ unpredictable form, it’s clearly the top play here.
Since becoming an AFL venue in 2014, 37 of 48 Port night games at the ground have gone under the total.
Bulldogs games are a strong lean to the under as well with 14 of their last 20 interstate night matches going under.
Both teams rank in the bottom six for average total points per match in 2022, Port Adelaide in 17th averaging just 142.1 points per game. The Dogs average total is inflated by playing two of the league’s worst defences in Essendon and North Melbourne in the last three weeks.
To top things off, Port are coming off a slog in humid conditions in Cairns and the Dogs are coming off a five-day break. Expect the game to seriously deteriorate as it progresses.
In a very uncertain match-up, the under is an outstanding bet.
Same Game Multi
Under 156.5 Points / Bailey Smith 25+ Disposals / Connor Rose 20+ Disposals / Robbie McComb Anytime Goal ($4.50)
Bailey Smith has cleared 25 disposals in every game this season while Connor Rozee has cleared 20 in his last three games. He has attended 70%+ centre bounces in the last two weeks as Ken Hinkley looks to inject fresh blood into his midfield.
Robbie McComb is a mature recruit who looks a likely type. He’s kicked 2.1 in his two career games and should get more opportunity forward this week with Mitch Wallis missing.
Value Bet
Todd Marshall 4+ Goals ($8.25)
The young Port forward is an all or nothing bet, having kicked two bags of five in 2022 but only two goals combined in his other five games.
The Bulldogs are a fantastic team to bet key forwards in. Peter Wright kicked four last week, while in prior weeks they conceded multiple goals to Tex Walker (3 goals), Nick Larkey (4), Tom Lynch (4), Charlie Curnow (5), Harry McKay (4) and Ben Brown (3).
We’ll likely have a crack at Jeremy Finlayson for the same reasons.
