Gather Round ends at Adelaide Oval on Sunday night with a genuinely tricky betting match between two sides who look like pretenders, Port Adelaide and St Kilda.
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Best Bet
The under is the strongest angle in a brutal betting match.
Port have beaten Essendon and Richmond, the two favourites for the wooden spoon, and lost to North Melbourne and West Coast, who are still bottom-four contenders. St Kilda have a win over GWS but losses to Collingwood, Melbourne and Brisbane. Neither side looks like even a wildcard chance right now.
Eleven of the last 16 games between these teams have gone under, including the last six at Adelaide Oval, with an average total of just 150. For some wild context, the last time either team kicked 100 or more points in this match-up was in China back in 2019.
The return of Todd Marshall boosts Port’s intercept game after the former forward looked excellent earlier in the year. St Kilda’s key defenders are a good match-up for Georgiades, who has kicked just four goals in his last four games against the Saints.
Expect this one to be played between the arcs and fall short of the total.
Same Game Multi
Port’s half-backs fill up against St Kilda so take Kane Farrell for a big game after 24 and 25 in his last two games.
Sam Flanders doesn’t do enough damage to require defensive focus and has gone 20 or more in each game this season. Marcus Windhager is another who should accumulate freely across half-back.
Jason Horne-Francis has averaged 1.5 goals per game this year and with only 30 per cent centre bounce attendance last week, he should be pushing forward regularly here.
Value Bet
The half-back versus St Kilda angle is a strong one and Farrell has had 25 and 24 in his last two games. Jase Burgoyne is another option in the same mould, assuming he plays back, having racked up 27 touches two games back against the Saints. Both can be taken here.
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