The recent records of both teams suggest a high-scoring contest is on the cards between Port Adelaide and Richmond at Adelaide Oval on Saturday night.
In a game the market expects to be very tight, the over presents as a great bet although we will need to defy one of footy’s strongest trends.
Port night games at home going under have long been money, with 38 of 50 falling short of the total. As a consequence, a very low total is on offer here and one that can be taken advantage of.
Richmond games average the second most points of any club in 2022 at 167.5 per game. Their last 10 away games have all gone over the total. Five of their last six overall have gone over.
Four of Port’s last six games have gone over. These games have averaged 168.2 points, including one game where GWS recorded a pathetic 29 points.
This is one of the lowest totals set in 2022. Of 171 games played this season, just six have had a lower mark.
Rain is forecast on Saturday but the worst of it is expected to clear by the evening, which leaves this total ripe for the picking.
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Shai Bolton has kicked 2+ goals in seven of his last eight games while Noah Cumberland has in three of his last four games.
Karl Amon continues to play good footy despite strong trade speculation. He’s had 20+ touches in 10 of his last 11 games.
Cumberland has been a tremendous addition to Richmond’s forward line over the last month. He’s kicked 11 goals in four games, including five against his former team last week.