AFL Tips – Port Adelaide v Geelong – Round 19 2022

Port Adelaide and Geelong have a ridiculous unders record head-to-head, giving us terrific confidence in our best bet for this clash at Adelaide Oval.

Best Bet

Under 154.5 Points
Total Points

Port home games have long been a good unders play and this Saturday’s meeting looks no exception.

62% of Power games at Adelaide Oval have gone under the total, including five of the last six and 12 of the last 17 when the home team are outsiders. The dead of winter only exacerbates this trend with 24 of 31 Port home games played between Rounds 12 and 18 also going under.

The head-to-head data all points one way as well with an extraordinary 10 of the last 11 games between these teams falling short of the total.

Port have seriously improved since their 0-5 start to the year but their performance against the league’s best remains a concern. They’ve only averaged 68.6 points per game against top 8 teams (ranked 15th). This week they meet the league’s #1 defence since Round 10, with the Cats conceding just 59 points per game.

Another low-scoring game between these teams looks very likely here.

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Same Game Multi

Under 154.5 Points, T.Stengle 2+ goals, C.Rozee 20+ Disposals & Anytime Goal

Port have done well to contain tall forwards recently, only conceding one bag of 4+ goals to a key forward since round 8 (Rory Lobb kicked 5 in Round 16), so we’ll steer clear of Jezza Cameron and Tom Hawkins here.

Kozzie Pickett ripped the Power apart last week, however, so we’ll look to Tyson Stengle for some snags. He booted three against Port last time they met.

Connor Rozee should continue his excellent season. He’s had 20+ touches in 13 straight games and has kicked a goal in seven straight.


Value Bet

Geelong 1-39, Under 154.5 Points
Double

The Cats are now vying for premiership favouritism and won’t let this one slip against a Port team who, as mentioned, have struggled against elite competition in 2022, only going 1-7 against top eight teams.

To the Power’s credit, they have remained competitive in these games, only losing by an average of 14 points in those seven losses, so they should remain close enough against the rampaging Cats at home.

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Joel has worked for more than six years at Sportsbet and BetEasy in the content and tipping space, specialising in AFL, cricket, NBA and UFC.