AFL Tips - Port Adelaide v Fremantle

Two 3-1 teams battle it out on Saturday night at Adelaide Oval with Port hosting Freo in one of the more intriguing matches of the weekend.

Best Bet

Fremantle +19.5

Line

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$1.90

The dour Dockers are back in 2024 and it should mean a close result here.

After experimenting with a more open, free-flowing style last year, Justin Longmuir has returned to what he knows best: disgustingly defensive footy. Freo have conceded just 63 points per game this season, more than seven points better than any other side.

As unwatchable as it can be, it is proving effective with the Dockers desperately unlucky not to be 4-0 after suffering a controversial loss against Carlton in Gather Round after dominating much of the game.

Port have been good to start 2024 but have been flattered by a soft draw. Their wins have come against Richmond, West Coast and Essendon, who are all trending toward the bottom six or even the bottom four.

Ken Hinkley’s team have been smashing bad teams for years but they can be shaky against good opposition, as their record of 14 covers from their last 38 games against top eight sides attests.

Their demolition of an insipid Essendon was awesome but the Power won’t be given the same defensive luxuries here. The Dockers also rank second for clearance differential (behind Port) so Rozee, Butters, Drew and Horne-Francis won’t be able to waltz out of the middle like they could last week.

No team has managed to wriggle free of Fremantle’s blanketing defence yet and with an even midfield battle likely, the visitors should keep this one tight.

Same Game Multi

Fremantle +19.5, A.Brayshaw 25+ Disposals, N.Fyfe & L.Ryan 20+ Disposals, D.Byrne-Jones

Bet Now

TBC

Aside from Willem Drew, Port’s midfielders aren’t particularly defensive minded so take Andrew Brayshaw for 25+, which has hit in 20 of his last 21 games.

Nat Fyfe should get plenty of freedom too. He’s had 20+ in three of four and 26 last week.

Luke Ryan remains a nice price for 20+ after 22 or more in each of his four games this season. He took eight of Freo’s 13 kick ins last week.

There’s still some value in Darcy Byrne-Jones for goals – he’s kicked eight in his last three.

Value Bet

Fremantle 1-20

Margin

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$5.40

Freo are being a little disrespected by the market, given they could (and should) be undefeated entering this match.

Port have one gear and it’s flat out attack. If that’s blunted and this becomes another Docker dogfight then the upset is absolutely a chance, albeit by a small margin.

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