AFL Tips – Port Adelaide v Carlton – Round 16 2025

Two teams desperate to keep their seasons alive square off on Thursday night with Carlton taking on Port Adelaide.

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Best Bet

Under 164.5 Points

Total Points

$1.90

Both of these teams stink so look to the total here.

The under continues to be money in Carlton matches, going under in an extraordinary 18 of 20 games. The Blues play in the second-lowest scoring games in 2025, averaging just 153 points in total. This drops to 147 points for their seven night games and just 139 points for their four interstate games.

Port games have been low-scoring as well, especially with their forward line struggling with player availability. They play in the equal fourth-lowest games this year, averaging 157.5 points per game and six of their last seven games have gone under the total.

Adelaide Oval is typically a high-scoring venue but that has dropped off lately, with five of the last seven going under. The average total in games played at the ground since Round 10 is just 136 points.

While both of these teams rank inside the top seven for inside 50s over the last five weeks, they’re both in the bottom six for converting an inside 50 into a score.

Expect a low-scoring match on Thursday night.

Same Game Multi

Under 164.5 Points, C.Rozee & G.Hewitt 25+ Disposals, Z.Williams Anytime Goal

$5.75

We continue to get a nice SGM boost from Connor Rozee despite him hitting 25+ in ten straight. George Hewitt has had 25+ in nine of his last ten.

Zac Williams has kicked a goal in five straight.

Value Bet

Carlton / Port Adelaide

HT/FT Double

$7.00

It’s genuinely bewildering that Carlton are 11-3 in opening halves this year, the equal best record in the competition, and 4-10 in second halves.

Backing Carlton to implode after the long break has been a very profitable strategy in 2025 and is worth backing again in a game they are outsiders in.

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