AFL Tips – Port Adelaide v Carlton – Round 12 2024

Round 12 gets underway on Thursday night when the Blues travel to the Adelaide Oval to play the Power.

Best Bet

Carlton +6.5
Line

Carlton look an excellent bet on the road with the points against Port.

The Blues broke a run of six losses against the Power in 2022 and followed it up with a 50 point thrashing of last year. Both of those games were in Victoria but it’s noteworthy nonetheless.

There remain big question marks about the Power against elite teams. They have only covered the line in two of their last nine games against Top 8 opponents, and while they are 8-3 this season, they are 3-0 in games decided by a goal or less.

Carlton have shown impressive resilience in the face of injury. They were there to get beaten by the Suns last week but kicked away late to win well. They really got on top of Gold Coast’s much vaunted midfield, and can do so here against a Power side still without Connor Rozee.

It should be a tight game so the Blues with the points are an appealing bet.

Insights

🏉 Carlton’s Performance Against the Top 4: Carlton has demonstrated strong performance against top-4 teams, successfully covering the spread in most of their recent encounters (six out of seven and seven out of nine).

🏈 Challenges for Port Adelaide Against Top Teams: Port has found it challenging to cover the spread when playing against top-8 teams, managing to do so in only two out of the last nine games.


Same Game Multi

Carlton +6.5, Houston, Newman, Horne-Francis 20+ Disposals, Williams 1+ Goal

Zac Williams went forward for the Blues last week and bagged four. They should stick with that plan this week.

Suspect Willem Drew might go to Sam Walsh so will be leaving him out this week.

The ball handling defenders, Dan Houston and Nic Newman appeal as high floor plays in this one. Jason Horne-Francis is becoming a consistent ball winner in the middle as well.


Value Bet

Carlton by 1 to 20 Points
Full Time 20 Point Margins

Like Carlton to cause an upset here but it would be surprise if this one became a blowout. Carlton by a small margin looks a solid play.

Betseeker’s expert tipsters have you covered for the best AFL tips, predictions, same-game multis, and more, for each game of the 2024 AFL season.

Avatar photo
Tim is a wagering industry veteran, having spent more than a decade at Sportsbet, BetEasy, TAB and William Hill working in trading and content.