The Power host the Lions in what the betting suggests will be the tightest match of the round at the Adelaide Oval on Saturday afternoon.
Best Bet
We’re buying all the Lions stock we can get our hands on at the moment and we’ll be with them once again in this game.
Yes, it was a poor effort to not cover the line last week against St Kilda but that was a highly unusual game that was extremely high scoring.
The Lions best performances this year – wins against Melbourne and the Dogs, and the draw against Adelaide – have come on the road and they will take a lot of confidence from their dominant record against Port.
The Lions have won six of their last seven against the Power with the home team’s only win coming in Round 1 last year. When they met in that year’s qualifying final, the Lions won by eight goals.
Port have lost back to back games leading into this with their post-bye effort against GWS last week being particularly poor. Ken Hinkley has swung the axe with four unforced changes which suggests an element of desperation.
Port have failed to cover the line in seven of nine at home and the Lions look a strong bet with the small head start in this one.
Insights
🏠 Port Adelaide at Home: Port has struggled at home, covering the spread only twice in their last 9 games.
🦁 Brisbane Lions vs Port Adelaide: The Lions have won 6 of the last 8 games against Port, covering the spread 7 times in the last 9 meetings.
🔝 Brisbane Against Top-8 Teams: The Lions have covered the spread in their last 4 games against top-8 teams.
💪 Conceded More Than 100: Brisbane Lions have won 8 of their last 9 games when conceding more than 100 points in the previous game.
Same Game Multi
Jarrod Berry has relished more midfield time with 20 or more in ten of his last eleven. Dayne Zorko has had 25 or more in eight of thirteen and is taking more kickouts of late, sharing them with Darcy Wilmot who has had 23 or more in three of his last four.
Dan Houston comes off 35 last week and has had 20 or more in his last ten.
Value Bet
Zorko has some huge disposal spikes and after seeing how the Saints effectively tagged Lachie Neale last week, it wouldn’t surprise if Ken Hinkley went down the same road this week with the Lions star mid. That should make Zorko an attractive price for most Lions disposals here.
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