AFL Tips – North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs – Round 5 2022

The Bulldogs look a shell of their 2021 selves and North Melbourne have the weapons to keep this close on Good Friday.

Best Bet

North Melbourne +31.5 ($1.90)

The Dogs are off.

Luke Beveridge’s star-studded midfield have been completely underwhelming through four rounds. At this point in 2021, they were ranked #1 for contested possession differential at +92. This year they are 15th at -34. No team has given up more contested possessions than the Bulldogs in 2022 and no team has a worse hitout-to-advantage differential.

They’re also really struggling against key forwards and will even more so without Alex Keith in the coming weeks. Ben Brown kicked 3.3 against them in Round 1, Curnow and McKay 5.0 and 4.1 respectively in Round 2 and Tom Lynch 4.0 in Round 4.

North are not a good team but have the assets to challenge here: a dependable contested game, tall forwards to challenge an undersized defence and a solid key backman in Ben McKay to compete with Aaron Naughton.

The Roos were terrific against Sydney last week, matching them in the contest and nearly pinching a stunning win. They will be desperate to atone for their humiliating 128 point loss in the corresponding fixture last year.

Perhaps most importantly for North, there’s no Josh Bruce this week. He’s kicked 2, 10, 6 and 6 in his last four against them.

North have covered a 30+ point line in six of their last nine. Against a Bulldogs side averaging just 73 points per game in 2022, they can keep this one within five goals.

Same Game Multi

North Melbourne +32.5 / B.Smith & J.Dunkley 25+ Disposals / L.McDonald 20+ Disposals ($4.00)

Bailey Smith and Josh Dunkley have been ultra-consistent ball winners in 2022. Neither has dropped below 25 touches in any of their games.

With Jack Ziebell’s move forward likely a permanent one, Luke McDonald will accumulate more disposals across half back in the coming weeks. He had 27 last week.

Value Bet

Todd Goldstein 2+ Goals ($3.00)

As mentioned, the Dogs are really struggling with marking forwards in 2022.

Tristan Xerri is being given more responsibility at the Roos’ #1 ruckman, leaving Todd Goldstein to be deployed more as a second tall forward. The veteran has kicked 2, 1, 0 and 2 so far this season and will seriously threaten the Dogs’ undersized defence.

A bag of 3+ at around $11.00 appeals as well.

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Joel has worked for more than six years at Sportsbet and BetEasy in the content and tipping space, specialising in AFL, cricket, NBA and UFC.