Given their covid issues, the safest bet for this match may be West Coast’s line-up changing again before their meeting with North Melbourne on Sunday.
Best Bet
Under 168.5 Points ($1.88)
The betting for this game has been wild.
The Eagles opened as $2.15 outsiders before coming in to $1.80 favourites on the news of Tim Kelly, Jack Darling, Liam Ryan and Luke Shuey being declared fit to play. They then drifted back out to $2.10 after Josh Kennedy, Jack Redden, Tom Barrass and Zac Langdon were ruled out on Thursday due to covid protocols.
At time of writing, there are rumours of more players being ruled out and additional WAFL top-ups being required to fill a side, many of whom have never trained with the Eagles. The Eagles are out to $2.90.
Given the uncertainty around West Coast, playing the total looks the strongest play with the numbers pointing to the under.
Games in the opening month of the season at Marvel have gone under at 67% in the last four years. A big line of 168.5 points looks an overreaction to the high scoring games we saw in Round 1.
Both sides’ forward lines are a complete shambles at present. The Eagles are missing linchpins Josh Kennedy and Oscar Allen and North are oddly experimenting with playing three ruck/forwards as well as Nick Larkey. (UPDATE: Coleman-Jones dropped)
North put just 58 points on the board last week and the Eagles 80. However, West Coast kicked extremely accurately and should only have scored 59 points according to Champion Data’s expected scoring.
With so many unknowns, the under looks the strongest bet.
Same Game Multi
Under 168.5 Points / Luke McDonald 20+ Disposals / Aaron Hall 25+ Disposals / Todd Goldstein Anytime Goal ($4.00)
Luke McDonald returned to defence with 27 touches last week after being played on a wing in 2021. He racks them up at will behind the ball alongside Aaron Hall, who has cleared 30 in his last five games.
Value Bet
Todd Goldstein 2+ Goals ($3.50)
With North experimenting with Tristan Xerri as its primary ruckman, Goldstein is spending more time forward in 2022. He looked the Roos’ biggest aerial threat against Hawthorn, kicking two goals, and will spend plenty of time at full-forward again this week.
