North Melbourne and Richmond meet on Saturday afternoon at Marvel Stadium in a battle of the AFL’s two bottom teams.
Best Bet
North have been the far more competitive team in recent weeks and should notch up a third victory of the season here.
Alastair Clarkson’s men have covered in six of eight since the bye, and although they’ve only won one of their last five, they’ve endured a very tough run of games with their last four losses coming against Sydney, Geelong, Carlton and Footscray.
Despite the difficult fixture, they have maintained their strength around the ball, ranked in the top eight for clearance and contested possession differential in their last five games (their opponents are bottom seven for each stat).
The Tiges have now lost 14 of their last 15 since their remarkable win over Sydney, only covering the line in six of those games. Their record at Marvel is putrid too, failing to cover the line in any of their last nine at the venue. They’ve also not covered in six straight day games and seven of eight against teams on a losing streak.
Richmond have struggled against North historically, only covering in four of their last 14 and one of seven at Marvel.
With talk of stars like Rioli, Martin, Bolton and Butler moving on, there’s a real chance of the bottom completely falling out at Tigerland in the final four games of the season.
North are finally playing with some purpose and they should win this comfortably.
INSIGHTS
🔻 North Melbourne vs Richmond: This matchup has seen low scores, with 7 out of the last 8 games going under the total. 🏁
🏟️ North Melbourne at Docklands: North Melbourne has been strong at Docklands, covering the spread in all of their last 5 games. 🏆
🐯 Richmond Away: Richmond has won just 1 out of their last 8 away games, with 6 of the last 7 games going under the total. 🛤️
Same Game Multi
It’s probably no surprise given their form but the Tigers have conceded 3+ goals to a player in every game since Round 4.
Nick Larkey obviously fits the bill to cash in, kicking 3+ in four straight but Cam Zurhaar loves this match-up too, booting ten in his last two against Richmond.
Jy Simpkin has had 20+ in seven straight while Daniel Rioli has had 25+ in four straight.
Value Bet
As mentioned, Zurhaar loves this match-up, with bags of six and four in his last two games against Richmond. Fresh off a big contract extension, he could explode here against a brittle backline.
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