AFL Tips – North Melbourne v Richmond – Round 18 2022

The arrival of a new coach has often proved beneficial over the last few years and North Melbourne should keep this one close in Leigh Adams’ debut game in charge at Marvel on Saturday arvo.

Best Bet

North Melbourne +44.5
Line

This is a tricky line but one the Roos can cover in their first game under their caretaker coach.

North were terrific against Collingwood last week, only faltering late to go down by seven points. While this was just the third time this season they have covered the line, there was plenty from that game to suggest the Kangas won’t continue to be a total embarrassment in the final phase of 2022.

Richmond look a favourable match-up, given they rank 17th for contested pill over the last month and North have won this stat in three of their last four games. The absence of Tom Lynch, Dustin Martin and Ivan Soldo don’t help their prospects either.

The Tigers have only won one game by 40+ points this season and have been particularly poor in final quarters, ranked 15th for fourth quarter percentage. While North are ranked last, Richmond’s proven inability to run out games decreases the likelihood of a blowout in the final stanza.

Damien Hardwick infamously proclaimed last year that he hates playing at Marvel, which is no surprise given his team has only covered the spread in two of their last ten visits. Back them to fall short again this week.

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Same Game Multi

North Melbourne +44.5, L. Davies Uniacke 25+ Disposals, D.Rioli & N.Vlaustin 20+ Disposals

As discussed, this is a favourable match-up for North’s inside mids. Luke Davies-Uniacke is finally living up to his draft position, having recorded 30 disposals in three of his last four games.

Richmond’s Nick Vlaustin has cleared 20 disposals in 12 of his last 13 games while Daniel Rioli is racking up plenty of touches behind the ball. He’s had 25+ in his last three games.


Value Bet

Richmond 1-24
Margin

Anything can happen with the arrival of a new coach, a fact Richmond know too well after being rolled by North in Rhyce Shaw’s first game as coach in 2019.

Stand-in coaches, including those missing due to covid, are 7-3 in their first games over the last three years.

The disruption caused by a change in coach is historically minimal and, if anything, beneficial to a team’s prospects. Backing North to outperform market expectations looks good value this week.

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Joel has worked for more than six years at Sportsbet and BetEasy in the content and tipping space, specialising in AFL, cricket, NBA and UFC.