AFL Tips – North Melbourne v Hawthorn – Round 19 2022

Expect a Saturday arvo shootout when Hawthorn travel south to Hobart to take on the Kangaroos, who are coming off a win for the first time in 15 weeks.

Best Bet

Over 168.5 Points
Total Points

The over looks a tremendous bet here.

With Sam Mitchell releasing the handbrake on his young side in 2022, the Hawks have been amongst the AFL’s best overs teams with 12 of their 17 games clearing the total. An equal league-high four Hawks games have gone over 200 points.

North, too, have been unshackled in the last fortnight, resulting in a vast improvement in their scoring output. After averaging a pathetic 54 points through first 15 rounds, the Roos have kicked 81 and 92 points in the last two weeks – their highest two scores of the year.

Interim coach Leigh Adams has completely stripped back the game plan and his team will attack for the rest of the season.

Perhaps against prevailing wisdom given its location and exposure to the elements, Blundstone is a decent overs venue with 58% of day games clearing the total.

With North’s last four games all going over as well, expect plenty of goals in this one.

Get on Betseeker Bingo with TopSport. If two or more listed players kick the first goal in Round 19, you win! There are chances to win across all nine games.


Same Game Multi

North Melbourne +20.5, Over 168.5 Points, J.Simpkin 25+ Disposals, J.Sicily & D.Moore 20+ Disposals

Jy Simpkin has had 25+ touches in five straight games and 38 and 29 respectively in his last two against Hawthorn.

As we’ve frequently mentioned, James Sicily is one of our favourite same game multi anchors given he’s had 20+ in every game he’s played this year.

Dylan Moore has spent a lot more time in the midfield in the last fortnight, attending more than half of Hawthorn’s centre bounces. He’s had 29 and 25 touches in those games.


Value Bet

North Melbourne +20.5, Over 168.5 Points
Double

This is a good match-up for North. They’ve covered in three of the last four against Hawthorn and have a terrific record in Hobart, where they cover at 69%.

Where the Roos can catch Hawthorn is in the contest. Despite their horror season, North rank 8th for total clearances while the Hawks are dead last. They are also last for winning first possession from centre bounces.

North are a great chance to cover for a third-straight game.

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Joel has worked for more than six years at Sportsbet and BetEasy in the content and tipping space, specialising in AFL, cricket, NBA and UFC.