AFL Tips – North Melbourne v Essendon – Round 20 2022

Expect a high-scoring conclusion to AFL Round 20 when North Melbourne host Essendon at Marvel on Sunday.

Best Bet

Over 170.5
Total Points

With nothing left to play for in season 2022, both of these teams are playing full-throttle footy which should result in a high-scoring game under the lid at Marvel.

Five straight North Melbourne games have cleared the total, as have three of Essendon’s last five and six of eight at home.

Since David Noble’s sacking three weeks ago, the Roos have kicked three of their biggest four scores of 2022. Those three games have totalled 169, 180 and 196 points respectively. They are still pathetic defensively, conceding 100+ points in 12 of their last 14 games.

Essendon’s defensive issues have been well-publicised as well. Ranked 14th for points conceded in 2022, Ben Rutten’s team have conceded 80+ points in four of their last five games. They are 17th for points conceded per inside 50 this year.

Expect the snags to be plentiful in this one.

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Same Game Multi

North Melbourne +42.5, Over 170.5 Points, D.Shiel & L.Davies-Uniacke 25+ Disposals

Dylan Shiel is benefiting from Darcy Parish’s absence, recording 25+ touches in each of the five games his teammate has missed over the last six weeks.

Luke Davies-Uniacke is having a breakout season and he’s cleared 25 disposals in four straight too.


Value Bet

North Melbourne +42.5 / Over 170.5
Double

This looks a big start for a much-improved North Melbourne against a highly-inconsistent Essendon.

North have been much better under Leigh Adams, covering the start in two of their last three. Last week’s 46-point loss to Hawthorn was more competitive than it appeared, with expected scoring only having the Roos losing by seven points.

Behind the Kangas, Essendon are the equal next worst team at covering the spread in 2022 – only covering the start in seven of 18 games.

Against such a poor defensive team and with spearhead Nick Larkey back in the line-up, North can keep this within seven goals.

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Joel has worked for more than six years at Sportsbet and BetEasy in the content and tipping space, specialising in AFL, cricket, NBA and UFC.