It’s 1st vs 17th on Saturday night at Marvel Stadium, but this could be closer than the market expects.
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Best Bet
North have a strong record against the Pies and should keep this within five goals.
The Roos have covered the line in four straight against Collingwood with an average margin of 15.25 points. Last year they somehow blew a 54-point lead to lose by just one.
Clarko looks to have fixed their team defence. After conceding 100 plus in six straight games to start the year, they have given up an average of just 77 points in the last four weeks. That ranks fifth in the league.
The Pies have been excellent this season but will miss Darcy Moore, Steele Sidebottom and Lachie Schultz. Schultz kicked four last year against North who often struggle with small forwards.
Paul Curtis returns for the Roos after kicking 18 goals in his first seven games this year at an average of 2.6. He joins a forward line full of marking options including Larkey, Darling, Maley and Zurhaar. That will test the Pies’ smaller defence.
Collingwood have covered the line in just 38 percent of games against bottom six teams since the start of 2023. North can stay in this.
Same Game Multi
Nick Daicos is likely to get the most opposition attention which should leave Scott Pendlebury to run free. He’s had 20+ touches in 18 straight games against the Roos.
Bobby Hill is a nightmare match-up for North’s small slow defenders.
Nick Larkey hasn’t been in great form but he’s kicked 14 in his last three against Collingwood.
Value Bet
North just have no one who can go with pacy small forwards, and Hill cashed in last year, booting five goals. He’s the danger man for the home side here.
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